Rogue Waves, Unexpected Waves, Wave Trends

Johannes Gemmrich

Occurrence rates of rogue waves

Exceedance probability P of normalized crest height (top) and normalized wave heights (bottom) for a simulated wave field corresponding to a JONSWAP spectrum with forth order Stokes correction. A standard Weibull distribution would result in strait lines. The curvature of the line implies a higher occurrence rate of extreme wave and crest heights than predicted by the standard model, depending on the initial wave steepness R (see Gemmrich & Garrett 2012, NHESS.)


Rogue waves - popular sciences

Gemmrich, J., 2015: ' Rogue waves not uncommon in BC waters.' Victoria Times Colonist, 29 October 2015. [News comment ]

Garrett, C. and J. R. Gemmrich, 2009: 'Rogue waves'. Physics Today, 62(6), doi:10.1063/1.3156339 [ pdf ]

Garrett, C., J. Gemmrich, and B. Bascheck, 2012: 'Rogue waves'. McGraw-Hill Yearbook of Science and Technology, 229-231.

Rogue waves, unexpected waves

Häfner, D.,  J. Gemmrich, and M. Jochum, 2023: 'Machine-guided discovery of a real-world rogue wave model'. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,120, DOI:10.1038/s41598-021089359-1

Cicon, L., J. Gemmrich, B. Pouliot, and N. Bernier, 2023: 'A probabilistic prediction of rogue waves from a WAVEWATCH III model for the northeast Pacific'. Weather and Forecasting,38, DOI:10.1073/pnas.2306275120
Gemmrich, J., Redhead,T. and A. Monahan, 2023: 'Surface wave height distributions and rogue wave probabilities on two-layer fluids.' Physical Review Fluids, 8, 054804.DOI:10.1103/PhysRevFluids.8.054804
Gemmrich J., and L. Cicon, 2022: 'Generation method and prediction of an observed extreme rogue wave'. Scientific Rep.,12, DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-05671-4
Häfner, D., J. Gemmrich, and M. Jochum, 2021: 'FOWD: A Free Ocean Wave Dataset for Data Mining and Machine Learning'. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., DOI:10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0185.1

Häfner, D.,  J. Gemmrich, and M. Jochum, 2021: 'Real-world rogue wave probabilities'. Scientific Rep.,11, DOI:10.1038/s41598-021089359-1

Gemmrich, J., and J. Thomson, 2017: 'Observations of the shape and group dynamics of rogue waves'. Geophys. Res. Let., 44, doi:10.1002/2016GL072398 [pdf ]

Gemmrich, J., B. Bascheck and C. Garrett, 2013: 'Rogue waves: rare but damaging'. Seaways, Sep. 2013, 14-16. [Seaways ] [pdf ]

Gemmrich, J. R. and C. Garrett, 2011: 'Dynamical and statistical explanations of observed occurrence rates of rogue waves.' Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., doi:10.5194/nhess-11-1437-2011 [pdf ]

Gemmrich, J. R. and C. Garrett, 2009: 'Unexpected waves: Shallow water simulations and comparison with observations'. Ocean Eng., 37, 262 – 267.. [pdf ]

Gemmrich, J. R. and C. Garrett, 2008: 'Unexpected waves'. J. Phys. Oceanog. 38, 2330-2336. [pdf ]

Wave trends, wave physics

Gemmrich, J., and A. Monahan, 2021: 'Surface and Interfacial Waves in a Strongly Stratified Upper Ocean'. J. Phys. Oceanog., 51, DOI:10.1175/JPO-D-20-0073.1

Gemmrich, J., J. Thomson, W. E. Rogers, A. Pleskachevsky, and S. Lehner, 2016: 'Spatial characteristics of ocean surface waves'. Ocean Dynamics 66, 1025-1035, DOI 10.1007/s10236-016-0967-6 [pdf ]

Gemmrich, J. R., B. Thomas, and R. Bouchard, 2011: 'Observational changes and trends in northeast Pacific wave records.' Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L22601, doi:10.1029/2011GL049518. [pdf ]

Gemmrich, J. R. and C. Garrett, 2012: 'The Signature of Inertial and Tidal Currents in Offshore Wave Records'. J. Phys. Oceanog., 42, DOI: 10.1175/JPO-D-12-043.1. [pdf ]

Gemmrich, J. R., T. D. Mudge and V. D. Polonichko, 1994: 'On the energy input from wind to surface waves'. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 24, 2413-2417 [pdf ] [corrigendum ]


THE MATHEMATICS OF EXTREME SEA WAVES, held at Fields Institute, June 2011  

ROGUE WAVES, 14th 'Aha Huliko'a Hawaiian Winter Workshop, 2005  

Last Modified: November 20, 2023
Johannes Gemmrich -