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Annealing: Ketcham et al. (2007)

Age uncertainty

Track lengths

Diffusion: RDAAM, Flowers et al. (2009)

One grain per line: age (Ma), radius (µm), eU (ppm), 1σ (Ma). The 1σ is for plots; the model itself assumes 12.3% for every grain.

Constraints (optional)

Paths enter each box at some point.

Paths never reheat by >5 °C.

Sample

Data, constraints and options in one file.

Time span
Options

Leave the seed blank for fresh draws each run.

How it works
  • Amortized inference. Neural networks, trained once on millions of simulated samples, map the data straight to the posterior in seconds (Radev et al. 2022).
  • Forward models. Fission-track annealing and lengths after Ketcham et al. (2007); helium diffusion with radiation damage (RDAAM, Flowers et al. 2009).
  • The prior. Slow background cooling plus a few exhumation pulses (2–50 Myr long) and reheating episodes (5–150 °C); temperatures of 0–200 °C; cooling rates up to ~90 °C/Myr; present-day temperature range set by the user (0–25 °C).
  • Constraints. Boxes and cooling only are applied by rejection: paths are drawn without them and only those that pass are kept.
  • Training uncertainties. Each helium age has a 12.3% error (1σ); fission-track age error is based on Ns.
  • Training range. Up to 12 helium grains; radius 30–110 µm; eU 1–507 ppm; Dpar 1.2–3.5 µm; 20–150 track lengths; ages within the time span. Outside the training range, the model extrapolates, and the answer is less credible. Each such case is flagged in the result.
References
Python

Link to PyPI will be added here.

Citation

Jiao, R. Rapid Bayesian estimation of thermal histories from apatite fission-track and (U–Th)/He data by amortized inference. In preparation.