Dr. Adam H. Monahan 

Associate Professor
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
University of Victoria
PO Box 3065 STN CSC
Victoria BC V8W 3V6 
Canada

Room A433 Bob Wright Centre

Tel: (250) 472 5075
Fax: (250) 472 4030

email: monahana "at" uvic.ca

Research Interests

• Variability and predictability of surface winds
• Atmospheric low-frequency variability
• Stochastic dynamics of the meridional overturning circulation
• Stochastic climate models
• Upper-ocean/planktonic ecosystem dynamics
• High-latitude climate variability
• Low-latitude climate variability
• Multivariate statistics in climate diagnostics
• Miscellaneous

Current Post-Doctoral Fellows

• Yanping He
• Tim Rees

Current Graduate Students

• Jeff Daines (MSc; with Charles Curry)
• William Thompson (PhD; at UBC with Rachel Kuske)
• Jan-Erik Tesdal (MSc; with Jim Christian and Knut von Salzen)
• Michael Optis (PhD)

Former Graduate Students

• Cangjie (Ross) Sun (MSc). Currently enrolled in an interdisciplinary masters program.
• Aaron Culver (MSc). Currently working with me as a research associate.
• Daniel Godlovitch (PhD; with Greg Flato). Currently a post-doctoral fellow at CCCma.
• Mitch Bruce (MSc).
• Laura Bianucci (PhD; with Ken Denman). Currently a post-doctoral fellow at Dalhousie University.
• Joel Culina (PhD). Currently a post-doctoral fellow at Acadia University.
• Julie Alexander (PhD. Currently faculty in Physics and Astronomy at Camosun College.
• Katie Healey (MSc; with Debby Ianson). Currently working at Ecofish Research.
• Qiobin Teng (PhD; with John Fyfe). Currently a forecaster with Environment Canada

Courses Taught

• EOS 225: Earth System Modelling
• EOS 551: Introductory Dynamic Meteorology

Publications

Variability and Predictability of Surface Winds

1. Sun, C. and A.H. Monahan: Statistical downscaling prediction of sea surface winds over the global ocean, J. Climate , under review.
2. Culver, A.M.R. and A.H. Monahan: Not all speeds are created equal: Investigating the statistical predictability of surface winds over Western and Central Canada, J. Climate , under review.
3. Monahan, A.H.: The Gaussian predictability of wind speeds, J. Climate , under review.
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4. Monahan, A.H.: Temporal autocorrelation structure of sea surface winds, J. Climate, in press.
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5. He, Y., N.A. McFarlane, and A.H. Monahan: The influence of boundary layer processes on the diurnal variation of the land surface wind speed probability distribution. J. Climate , in press.
6. van der Kamp, D., C. Curry, and A.H. Monahan: Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II: Predicting wind components. Clim. Dyn., 38 , 1301-1311, 2012.
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7. Curry, C., D. van der Kamp, and A.H. Monahan: Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. I: Predicting wind speed. Clim. Dyn. , 38 , 1281-1299, 2012.
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8. Monahan, A.H: Can we see the wind? Statistical downscaling of historical sea surface winds in the Subarctic Northeast Pacific. J. Climate , 25 , 1511-1528, 2012.
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9. Monahan, A.H., Y. He, N. McFarlane, and A. Dai: The probability distribution of land surface wind speeds. J. Climate 24, 3892-3909, 2011.
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10. Monahan, A.H.: The probability distribution of sea surface winds: Effects of variable surface stratification and boundary layer thickness. J. Climate , 23 , 5151-5162, 2010.
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11. He, Y., A.H. Monahan, C.G. Jones, A. Dai, D. Caya, S. Biner, and K. Winger: Land surface wind speed probability distributions in North America: Observations and regional climate model evaluations. J. Geophys. Res. , 115 doi:10.1029/2008JD01708, 2010.
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12. Monahan, A.H.: Probability distribution of sea surface wind stresses , Geophys. Res. Lett. , 34 , L05704, 2008. doi:10.1029/2007GL032268.
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13. Monahan, A.H.: Empirical Models of the Probability Distribution of Sea Surface Wind Speeds , J. Climate , 20, 5798-5814, 2007.
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14. Monahan, A.H.: The Probability Distribution of Sea Surface Wind Speeds. Part II: Dataset Intercomparison and Seasonal Variability , J. Climate , 19 , 521-534, 2006.
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15. Monahan, A.H.: The Probability Distribution of Sea Surface Wind Speeds. Part I: Theory and SeaWinds Observations , J. Climate , 19 , 497-520, 2006.
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16. Monahan, A.H.: Stochastic Dynamics of Sea Surface Winds . Proceedings, Workshop on Representation of Sub-Grid Processes Using Stochastic Dynamic Models, ECMWF, 6-8 June 2005.
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17. Monahan, A.H., Low-frequency variability of the statistical moments of sea-surface winds , Geophys. Res. Lett. , 31, doi:10.1029/2004GL019599, 2004.
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18. Monahan, A.H.: A Simple Model for the Skewness of Global Sea-Surface Winds . J. Atmos. Sci., 61 2037-2049, 2004.
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    Large-Scale Atmospheric Variability

19. Bruce, L. and A.H. Monahan: A kinematic examination of zonal mean geopotential variability. Atmosphere-Ocean , submitted.
20. Froyland, G., N. Santitissadeekorn, and A.H. Monahan: Transport in time-dependent dynamical systems: Finite-time coherent sets. Chaos , 20 , 043116, 2010.
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21. Santitissadeekorn, N., G. Froyland, and A. Monahan: Optimally coherent sets in geophysical flows: A new approach to delimiting the stratospheric polar vortex . Phys. Rev. E , 82 , 056311, 2010.
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22. Monahan, A.H. and J.C. Fyfe: How Generic Are Dipolar Jet EOFs? . J. Atmos. Sci. , 66 , 541-551, 2009.
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23. Monahan, A.H. and J.C. Fyfe: On Annular Modes and Zonal Jets , J. Climate , 21, 1963-1978, 2008.
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24. Teng, Q., J.C. Fyfe, and A.H. Monahan: Northern Hemisphere Circulation Regimes: Observed, Simulated, and Predicted , Clim. Dynamics , 28 867-879, 2007.
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25. Monahan, A.H. and J.C. Fyfe, On the Nature of Zonal Jet EOFs , J. Climate , 19, 6409-6424, 2006.
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26. Teng, Q., A.H. Monahan, and J.C. Fyfe: Effects of Time Averaging on Climate Regimes. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 31 , doi:10.1029/2004GL020840, 2004.
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27. Monahan, A.H., J.C. Fyfe, and L. Pandolfo: The vertical structure of wintertime climate regimes of the northern hemisphere extratropical atmosphere , J. Climate , 16 , 2005-2021, 2003.
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28. Monahan, A.H., L. Pandolfo, and J.C. Fyfe: The preferred structure of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation , Geophys. Res. Lett. , 28 , 1019-1022, 2001.
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29. Monahan, A.H., L. Pandolfo: Meridional localisation of planetary waves in stochastic zonal flows , J. Atmos. Sci. , 58 , 808-820, 2001.
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30. Monahan, A.H., L. Pandolfo, and P. Imkeller: Stochastic Confinement of Rossby Waves by Fluctuating Eastward Flows . Stochastic Climate Models, Birkhauser, 2001.
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31. Imkeller, P., A. H. Monahan, and L. Pandolfo: Some Mathematical Remarks Concerning the Localization of Planetary Waves in a Stochastic Background Flow . Stochastic Climate Models, Birkhauser, 2001.
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32. Monahan, A.H, J. Fyfe, and G. Flato: A Regime View of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Variability and Change under Global Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. , 27, 1139-1142, 2000.
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    Stochastic Dynamics of the Meridional Overturning Circulation

33. Alexander, J. and A.H. Monahan: Non-normal perturbation growth of pure thermohaline circulation using a 2-D zonally averaged model , J. Phys. Oceanogr., 39 , 369-389, 2009.
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34. Monahan, A.H., J. Alexander, and A.J. Weaver: Stochastic models of the meridional overturning circulation: Timescales and patterns of variability, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A , 366, 2527-2544, 2008.
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35. Monahan, A.H.: Lyapunov exponents of a simple stochastic model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation , Dyn. Atmos. Ocean. , 35 , 363-388, 2002.
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36. Monahan, A.H.: Correlation effects in a simple stochastic model of the thermohaline circulation , Stochastics and Dynamics, 2, 437-462, 2002.
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37. Monahan, A.H.: Stabilisation of climate regimes by noise in a simple model of the thermohaline circulation , J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 2072-2085, 2002.
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38. Monahan, A.H., Timmermann, A., and Lohmann, G.: Comments on ``Noise-induced transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation'' , J. Phys. Oceanogr. , 32, 1112-1116, 2002.
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    Stochastic Climate Models

39. Monahan, A.H. and J. Culina: Stochastic Averaging of Simple Climate Models, J. Climate , 24 , 3068-3088, 2011.
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40. Culina, J., S. Kravtsov, and A.H. Monahan: Stochastic parameterization schemes for use in realistic climate models. J. Atmos. Sci. 68 , 284-299, 2011.
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41. Imkeller, P. and A.H. Monahan: Conceptual stochastic climate models , Stochastics and Dynamics, 2, 311-326, 2002.
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    Upper-Ocean/Planktonic Ecosystem Dynamics

42. Healey, K., A.H. Monahan, and D. Ianson: Perturbation dynamics of a planktonic ecosystem . J. Mar. Res. , 67 637-666, 2010..
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43. Monahan, A.H. and K. Denman: Impacts of atmospheric variability on a coupled upper-ocean/ecosystem model of the subarctic Northeast Pacific , Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 18 , doi:10.1029/2003GB002100, 2004.
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    High-Latitude Climate Variability

44. Godlovitch, D., A.H. Monahan, and G. Flato. An idealised stochastic model of sea ice thickness dynamics. Cold Reg. Sci. Tech. , in press.
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45. Godlovitch, D., R. Illner, and A.H. Monahan. Smoluchowski coagulation models of sea ice thickness distribution dynamics. J. Geophys. Res. , 116 , 2011.
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46. Merryfield, W.J., M.M. Holland, and A.H. Monahan: Multiple Equilibria and Abrupt Transitions in Arctic Summer Sea Ice Extent. AGU Monograph, "Arctic Sea Ice Decline", pp. 151-174, 2008.
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47. Kuhlbrodt, T. and A.H. Monahan: Stochastic stability of open-ocean deep convection, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 33 , 2764-2780, 2003.
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    Low-Latitude Climate Variability

48. Monahan, A.H. and A. Dai, The spatial and temporal structure of ENSO nonlinearity . J. Climate, 17 3026-3036, 2004.
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49. Monahan, A.H.: Nonlinear principal component analysis: Tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature and sea level pressure, J. Climate , 14 , 219-233, 2001.
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50. Tang, B, Hsieh, W.W., Monahan A.H., and Tangang, F.T. : Skill comparisons between neural networks and canonical correlation analysis in predicting the Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. J. Climate , 13 , 287-293, 2000.
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51. Tangang, F.T., B. Tang, A.H. Monahan, W.W. Hsieh: Forecasting ENSO events: a neural network approach. J. Climate , 11 , 29-41, 1998.
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    Multivariate Statistics in Climate Diagnostics

52. Monahan, A.H., J.C. Fyfe, M.H.P. Ambaum, D. Stephenson, and G.R. North: Empirical orthogonal functions: The medium is the message , J. Climate , 22 , 6501-6514, 2009.
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53. Monahan, A.H. and T. DelSole: Information theoretic measures of dependence, compactness, and non-Gaussianity for multivariate probability distributions, Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 16 , 57-64, 2009.
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54. Monahan, A.H. and J.C. Fyfe: Comment on "The shortcomings of nonlinear principal component analysis in identifying circulation regimes", J. Climate , 20 , 374-377, 2007.
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55. Monahan, A.H.: Nonlinear principal component analysis of climate data . PhD Thesis, University of British Columbia, 159 pp, 2000.
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56. Monahan, A.H.: Nonlinear principal component analysis by neural networks: Theory and application to the Lorenz system , J. Climate , 13 , 821-835, 2000.
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57. Monahan, A.H., F.T. Tangang, and W.W. Hsieh: A potential problem with extended EOF analysis of standing wave fields. Atmosphere-Ocean , 37 , 241-254, 1999.
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    Miscellaneous

58. Monahan, A.H.: The mathematics of climate modelling. Pi in the Sky, 14, 17-21, 2010.
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59. Monahan, A.H., M. McMillan: Faddeev equations for a relativistic two- and three- body system. Phys. Rev. A , 58 , 4226-4228, 1998.
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60. Monahan, A.H., M. McMillan: Lorentz Boost of the Newton-Wigner-Pryce Position Operator. Phys. Rev. A. , 56 , 2563-2566, 1997.
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